Market Recap — August 12, 2026

Market Snapshot

Market data for today's session was not available, making it difficult to characterize the overall risk posture or index performance with precision. Based on the news flow, the session appeared shaped by a mix of AI infrastructure momentum and geopolitical tension in key shipping lanes, with Treasury yields holding steady ahead of tomorrow's inflation data.

Key Drivers

• AI Infrastructure Earnings Fuel Tech Optimism — A cluster of strong results from AI-adjacent companies set a constructive tone. CoreWeave reported revenue doubling and shares rose 14% after hours, while Super Micro exceeded forecasts and Lumentum posted sales more than doubling on AI demand. These prints reinforced the narrative that enterprise AI spending remains robust, likely supporting sentiment in the broader tech and semiconductor space.
• Treasury Yields Flat Ahead of CPI — The 10-year yield held near 4.68% as traders adopted a wait-and-see stance before Wednesday's consumer price index release. The lack of movement in rates suggests positioning remained cautious, with neither bulls nor bears willing to commit ahead of a data point that could shift Fed expectations.
• Red Sea Tensions Resurface — A Houthi attack resulted in six fatalities—the first in the Red Sea in over a year—followed by U.S. strikes on a container ship. The escalation raised concerns about shipping disruptions through critical trade lanes, which could have implications for energy and logistics costs if hostilities intensify.
• Yen Weakness Persists Despite Intervention — The Japanese yen has erased roughly half the gains from a historic U.S.-Japan coordinated intervention less than two weeks ago. The failure to sustain the move highlights ongoing dollar strength and may keep currency volatility elevated, a factor for multinational earnings and carry-trade dynamics.
• Bitcoin Miners Pivot to AI Infrastructure — Riot Platforms announced a $9 billion, 20-year compute deal with Anthropic, illustrating how bitcoin miners are repositioning assets toward AI workloads. The deal underscores the growing convergence of power-intensive industries and may influence sentiment in both crypto-adjacent equities and AI infrastructure plays.

Bottom Line

Markets entered Wednesday's session in a holding pattern, with rates steady and risk appetite neither stretched nor defensive. The AI infrastructure theme continues to provide a bid for tech, but tomorrow's CPI print is the near-term catalyst that could unlock directional moves. Traders should watch for any further escalation in Red Sea shipping routes, which could introduce supply-side inflation pressures if disruptions widen.

OrbStats Strategy Pulse

Three of our strategies fired today, and the results were mixed but encouraging on the MNQ side. The MNQ MidRange After Break strategy extended its winning streak to five consecutive days—its best run in recent memory—with another solid $120 session. That one's been quietly reliable, even if its 30-day average is running slightly below its 90-day baseline. The MNQ ORB 9:30 NY Open also posted a win, snapping back after some choppier days. MGC ORB 30s notched its second straight green day as well, though it's worth noting that strategy has cooled off meaningfully from where it was performing a few months ago. On the other side, SIL New York Opening took a loss today and has been underperforming its baseline pretty significantly—something we're keeping an eye on. The Micro DAX strategy is now on a three-day losing streak, its longest since spring. No trades from FDXS or the EMA50-Filtered MNQ setup today, but FDXS in particular has been trending down over the past month and bears watching.