Market Recap — July 8, 2026

Market Snapshot

Markets faced a risk-off session on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions dominated the tape, though index-level data was not available to quantify the damage. The collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and fresh military strikes sent oil prices sharply higher while the Fed minutes revealed a divided committee, adding to an already cautious tone across risk assets.

Key Drivers

• U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalation Rattles Markets — President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over" following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure and small boats, with threats of additional action including a naval blockade. Oil prices jumped more than 4% to their highest levels in over two weeks, with the Strait of Hormuz returning to what analysts described as "full-conflict conditions." Prediction markets now see just a 43% chance that Hormuz traffic normalizes by December, down sharply from prior expectations. The energy shock rippled beyond crude, with analysts flagging airlines and homebuilders as particularly vulnerable sectors.
• Fed Minutes Show Policy Uncertainty — The release of minutes from the June 16-17 FOMC meeting revealed officials were "split on the direction of interest rates," offering little clarity on the path forward. The lack of consensus likely contributed to afternoon hesitation as traders digested the implications for positioning ahead of upcoming data.
• Tech Sector Remains Under Pressure — More than two-thirds of tech stocks are now trading at least 20% below recent highs, with semiconductor names seeing continued profit-taking after a strong second quarter. SpaceX shares fell below their IPO debut price of $150 to close at $148, extending losses following the company's Nasdaq 100 inclusion. The weakness persisted despite Bank of America calling Nvidia a buying opportunity at current levels.
• Apple-Broadcom Deal Provides Domestic Manufacturing Catalyst — Apple announced a $30 billion commitment to Broadcom for U.S.-based chipmaking, its largest American manufacturing agreement to date. The news offered some support to the domestic semiconductor supply chain narrative, though broader tech weakness limited any sector-wide lift.
• Earnings and Corporate News Mixed — Levi Strauss beat quarterly expectations and raised both guidance and its dividend, providing a bright spot in consumer discretionary. Meanwhile, insider selling activity was notable across several names including Robinhood, where CEO Vladimir Tenev sold $43.6 million in stock and the chief legal officer sold an additional $1.16 million.

Bottom Line

The session's risk-off tone was driven primarily by the deteriorating Middle East situation, with energy volatility likely to persist as long as Hormuz remains in conflict conditions. The Fed's policy ambiguity adds another layer of uncertainty, leaving traders without a clear macro anchor. Watch overnight developments on Iran and tomorrow's jobless claims data for direction; elevated oil prices and a hawkish-leaning Fed could continue pressuring growth-sensitive sectors.

OrbStats Strategy Pulse

Solid day overall for our strategies that fired, with five of six landing winners. The standout was MNQ Reversal Hammer/Star, which booked $400 on a single trade—that strategy has been trending up nicely, running about $70/day above its 90-day baseline over the past month. Our MNQ ORB 9:30 NY Open strategy extended its hot streak to six consecutive winning days, the longest current run in the portfolio, and it's also outperforming its baseline. On the flip side, MNQ MidRange took a $500 loss and is now on a three-day losing skid, though its 30-day average still sits comfortably above baseline. Worth keeping an eye on SIL New York Opening—it's riding a five-day win streak but has cooled off considerably from its prior pace, with the 30-day average running nearly $60/day below where it was 90 days ago. The MNQ ORB 9:30-9:45 EMA50-Filtered also shows similar divergence despite today's win. Geopolitical volatility like we're seeing tends to favor breakout strategies, so we'll be watching closely tomorrow.