Market Recap — July 13, 2026

Market Snapshot

Markets traded with a clear risk-off tone on Monday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and hawkish Fed commentary combined to pressure equities. Without official index close data available, headlines and strategy performance suggest a challenging session for risk assets, with energy and defense likely outperforming while technology and growth sectors faced headwinds.

Key Drivers

• Strait of Hormuz Blockade Sends Oil Above $83 — President Trump's reimposition of the naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with a proposed 20% toll on cargo transiting the waterway, triggered oil's largest single-day gain in six years. The escalation coincided with active military exchanges between U.S. and Iranian forces, with Iran launching attacks on American bases in Gulf states. Energy stocks likely benefited while the broader market absorbed the inflationary implications of higher crude prices.
• Fed's Waller Keeps Rate Hikes on the Table — Governor Waller warned that the Fed should not "fight the last war" on inflation and noted that price pressures have broadened beyond energy and tariffs. His comments, combined with the oil shock, pushed odds of a July rate hike meaningfully higher according to market pricing. Treasury yields likely moved up in response, adding pressure to rate-sensitive sectors.
• Semiconductor Sector Under Pressure from SK Hynix Rout — Chip stocks faced a unanimous selloff after SK Hynix experienced its worst trading day in 18 years in South Korea. The weakness spread to U.S. names including Micron, weighing on the broader technology sector and the SOX semiconductor index. The imported volatility compounded an already difficult session for growth stocks.
• SpaceX Continues Post-IPO Slide — Shares of SpaceX fell for a second consecutive session, approaching the $135 IPO price set just one month ago. The company has shed more than $800 billion in market value from its peak, creating a sentiment overhang for the broader growth and momentum trade. The stock's weakness follows its addition to the Nasdaq-100 last week.
• Big Tech Spending Spree Draws Scrutiny — Meta announced its Louisiana data center investment will reach $50 billion, part of a broader trillion-dollar capital expenditure cycle among hyperscalers. Meanwhile, reports highlighted that AI-related corporate debt has jumped 99% over the past year, raising concerns about concentration risk in investor portfolios and the sustainability of current spending levels.

Bottom Line

Monday's session reflected a market grappling with multiple crosscurrents: an energy shock that complicates the inflation picture, a Fed that appears willing to hike if conditions warrant, and a technology sector absorbing both global semiconductor weakness and post-IPO digestion in high-profile names. Positioning heading into Tuesday leans defensive, with traders likely watching crude oil futures overnight and any further developments in the Strait of Hormuz standoff. Thursday's Trump speech on declassified intelligence and Netflix earnings represent the next potential catalysts for volatility.

OrbStats Strategy Pulse

A mixed day across the board for our strategies, with the star performer being MNQ Reversal Hammer/Star, which extended its winning streak to three consecutive days and booked $380 on today's trade. That strategy continues trending up meaningfully, with its 30-day average now running about $60 better than its 90-day-prior baseline — worth keeping an eye on. On the flip side, MNQ Spinning Top + Confirmation is now sitting at four losing days in a row, matching its worst streak in six months, so we'll be watching closely to see if it stabilizes. A few of our stalwarts are cooling off from their baselines: SIL New York Opening, MNQ ORB 9:30-9:50 EMA50-Filtered, and MGC ORB 30s are all running noticeably below their 90-day-prior averages, with SIL and MNQ ORB 9:30-9:50 showing the steepest declines. The Nasdaq volatility from today's geopolitical headlines likely contributed to the whipsaw action we saw in MNQ-based setups. Tomorrow should tell us whether this was noise or the start of a tougher stretch.